The first half of this essay is also presented as a video on our YouTube, and the second half is an analysis of both air forces in conflict with each other. 

On April 22, 2025, a terrorist attack in the Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir marked a sharp escalation in Indo-Pakistani tensions. The attack claimed the lives of 26 civilians, primarily Hindu tourists, and was attributed to The Resistance Front (TRF), a proxy group linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba. In response, India implemented a suite of retaliatory measures—suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, closing border crossings, and expelling Pakistani diplomats. Pakistan, denying involvement, closed its airspace to Indian aircraft and claimed that an Indian military strike was imminent. In the following days, skirmishes resumed along the Line of Control, with both sides placing their air forces on heightened alert.

Given the tensions have now gone kinetic and likely to expand, we will take this opportunity to examine the air forces of both India and Pakistan - their inventories, capabilities, and recent developments.

The Indian Air Force

As of 2025, the Indian Air Force operates approximately 715 combat aircraft, placing it among the top five largest tactical air arms in the world. (For comparison, the United States Air Force fields over 2,000 combat aircraft; the Russian Aerospace Forces around 900–1,100; China’s PLAAF about 1,500+ fighters; and France around 220.) Within South Asia, India’s fleet size significantly exceeds that of the Pakistan Air Force, which fields an estimated 450 or so fighter jets.

The backbone of the Indian Air Force fleet remains the Sukhoi Su-30MKI, with around 260 units in service. This twin-engine, multirole air superiority fighter was jointly developed by Russia’s Sukhoi and India’s HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited) under a 1990s agreement for a customised Indian aircraft.  The "MKI" designation reflects this uniquely Indian variant—combining a Russian airframe and 3D thrust-vectoring engines, Israeli electronic warfare systems, and Indian mission computers and avionics. The Su-30MKI entered Indian Air Force service in 2002 (earlier Su-30K variants were operated from 1997). HAL has since produced the aircraft domestically in batches, and over time the platform has seen incremental upgrades. A comprehensive mid-life upgrade (dubbed "Super Sukhoi") is now underway, equipping the fleet with the Uttam AESA radar and new indigenous weapons like the Astra Mk2 BVR missile.

The Su-30MKI's combat radius is around 1,500 km without refuelling, and carries a wide range of precision munitions, including the BrahMos-A supersonic cruise missile, Russian R-77 air-to-air missiles, and various Indian-designed ordnance. The BrahMos can travel at Mach 2.8 with a range now extended to about 450 km, giving the Su-30 a formidable standoff strike capability.

Complementing the Su-30 is the Dassault Rafale, with 36 airframes operational across two squadrons. These 4.5-generation fighters carry the Meteor long-range air-to-air missile – arguably the most potent BVR missile in the region – with a no-escape zone exceeding 60 km. (The Meteor’s ramjet sustainer motor gives it high energy even at long ranges.) Rafales are also equipped with the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite and advanced sensors and can deliver precision-guided munitions such as the SCALP-EG stealth cruise missile. The SCALP, with a range of about 500 km, allows the Rafale to strike high-value targets deep inside enemy territory while remaining well outside hostile SAM envelopes.

India continues to operate other multirole fighters like the Mirage 2000 and MiG-29UPG, both upgraded with glass cockpits, modern radars, and improved weapons. Although showing their age, these platforms are still effective in strike and interception roles. The Jaguar DARIN III fleet, specialized for low-level deep penetration strikes, is nearing obsolescence but still forms a niche part of India’s offensive doctrine. India’s push for self-reliance is embodied in the HAL Tejas – a single-engine, delta-wing multirole indigenous aircraft. The improved Tejas Mk1A, is slated for delivery starting in 2025. It features an AESA radar, modern digital flight controls, and compatibility with indigenous weapons like the Astra BVR air-to-air missile.

India’s support assets are equally critical. They operate a strategic airlift fleet of C-17 Globemasters, C-130J Super Hercules, IL-76, and the Antonov An-32 for transport and logistics. For aerial refuelling, the Indian Air Force has a fleet of six IL-78MKI Midas tankers, and in 2024 leased a U.S. KC-135 tanker for training. They have also approved the wet-lease of an Airbus A330 MRTT from the French Air Force for a three-year term, significantly extending the operational radius of their Su-30s and Rafales during long-range missions.

In terms of airborne surveillance and battle management, the Indian Air Force fields Phalcon AWACS mounted on IL-76 platforms and smaller Netra AEW&C on Embraer ERJ-145 jets. These assets act as force multipliers in BVR engagements and bolster India’s layered air defence grid. India’s ground-based air defence is also undergoing modernization. Barak-8 medium-range SAMs (jointly developed with Israel) are operational near Western and Northern borders, and new indigenous systems like Akash-NG and the long-range XRSAM (Project Kusha) are in development. The Indian Air Force has begun inducting the Ashwini Low-Level Transportable AESA radars to enhance low-altitude coverage.

With seven Air Commands, over 50 operational air bases, and plans to expand to 60 fighter squadrons by 2047, it seems the Indian Air Force has the infrastructure, depth, and readiness for a sustained high-tempo operation on multiple fronts. The Indians are prepared for a two-front conflict scenario (namely against Pakistan and China simultaneously).

The Pakistan Air Force

With a combat fleet of approximately 450 aircraft, the Pakistan Air Force relies on agility, selective modernization, and an increasingly networked doctrine to offset India’s numerical advantage. Its frontline strength is built around three core platforms: the JF-17 Thunder, the F-16 Fighting Falcon, and the newly inducted J-10C.

The JF-17, co-developed with China, forms the numerical backbone of the Pakistan Air Force. Over 150 aircraft have been delivered across multiple variants, with the latest Block III models entering service. These feature a KLJ-7A AESA radar, helmet-mounted sight, a full glass cockpit, and compatibility with the PL-15 BVR missile, giving the Pakistan Air Force a significant boost in long-range engagement capability. While its single RD-93 engine limits performance compared to twin-engine adversaries, the JF-17 is a cost-effective, locally supported multirole fighter, allowing broad deployment across Pakistan’s airbases. The airframe is partially manufactured by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, offering resilience against external supply constraints.

Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, originally procured in the 1980s, remains a key multirole asset. The Pakistan Air Force operates approximately 75–80 F-16s, including upgraded Block 15s and more modern Block 52+ variants. These aircraft are equipped with the AN/APG-68(V)9 radar, Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing Systems, and precision munitions such as JDAMs, GBU-12 Paveways, and AGM-65 Mavericks. All are compatible with AIM-120C-5 AMRAAMs, giving the Pakistan Air Force a reliable BVR capability. Integration with Sniper XR targeting pods enhances strike precision and surveillance, while tight integration with Pakistan’s AWACS network makes the F-16s a dependable all-weather strike and air defence platform.

In 2022, the Pakistan Air Force inducted its first J-10C fighters from China—currently its most advanced platform. Powered by the WS-10B thrust-vectoring engine and fitted with a GaN-based AESA radar, the J-10C brings enhanced agility, sensor fusion, and BVR lethality via the PL-15 and PL-10 missile combination. With at least 25 airframes delivered and more expected, the J-10C is seen as a strategic supplement to the JF-17 and a core asset for quick-reaction air superiority.

Legacy platforms such as the Mirage III/V and F-7P/PG are still in limited use but are steadily being phased out. Efforts to develop a fifth-generation fighter under Project Azm remain conceptual for now.

Pakistan maintains a modest but capable airborne surveillance fleet, including Saab 2000 Erieye AEW&C and Chinese ZDK-03 Karakoram Eagle AWACS, integrated into a centralized C2 network via the Link-17 datalink. These systems support coordinated BVR engagements and bolster the Pakistan Air Force’s situational awareness across key sectors.

For aerial refuelling, Pakistan operates four IL-78MP tankers (with around three typically operational), which support extended-range missions for the JF-17, J-10C, and F-16 fleets. However, the limited number of refuelling platforms constrains the number of concurrent long-range operations.

In terms of standoff strikes, the Pakistan Air Force deploys Ra’ad air-launched cruise missiles from upgraded Mirages. Though not comparable in speed or range to India’s BrahMos or SCALP, they provide Pakistan with a limited precision-strike option. Reports suggest work is underway on further air-launched systems, including possible Babur variants.

Pakistan’s ground-based air defense revolves around the LY-80 (HQ-16) medium-range SAM system, with recent developments in indigenous radar such as the SR-3D, an 80 km-range S-band system designed for SAM targeting and low-level coverage. Future variants are expected to extend this range further.

Unmanned systems are also growing in importance. The Shahpar III, a locally developed MALE-class UCAV, can carry a 500 kg payload and loiter for over 24 hours. Armed variants are expected to enter service soon, supplementing existing ISR platforms like the Wing Loong II and earlier Shahpar variants.

Geographically, the Pakistan Air Force ensures strategic flexibility by dispersing squadrons across major and forward airbases. Key installations include Pakistan Air Force Base Mushaf (Sargodha), Shahbaz (Jacobabad), Masroor (Karachi), and forward locations such as Skardu, which has seen deployments of JF-17s during periods of tension.

There is no doubt, that although small, the Pakistan Air Force has shaped itself into a lean, adaptive, and technologically agile force. Its strength lies not in numbers, but in integration, modernization, and asymmetric capability—designed to maintain deterrence and tactical flexibility in a high-stakes regional environment.

As we watch the unfolding of an Indian-Pakistani confrontation, the outcome would obviously depend on many variables such as scale, duration, and geography of the conflict. Nevertheless, as of May 7th, 2025, what follows are a few informed comparisons based on key areas of capability.

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Combat Implications – Who Holds the Edge?

BVR

Firstly let’s consider Beyond Visual Range Combat: India’s Rafales with Meteor missiles are a standout BVR asset. The Meteor’s combination of long reach and high terminal energy (due to its ramjet propulsion) means a Rafale can fire first and lethally at considerable distances. Pakistan’s introduction of the J-10C with PL-15 missiles is the obvious counter.

The PL-15 offers very long range – estimated around 150–200 km – and if guided by AWACS cueing, a J-10C could threaten high-value targets like tankers or AWACS aircraft and engage fighters at similar ranges to Meteor-armed Rafales. The Su-30MKI, while present in large numbers, historically had a BVR weakness due to its older R-77 (RVV-AE) missiles. The original R-77 has a maximum range of ~80 km and active-radar homing– roughly comparable to early AIM-120 variants. However, its performance was hampered by certain factors: the missile’s antiquated electronics, inconsistent quality across batches, and its distinctive grid fins which increase drag and reduce speed at long range.

These issues meant the Su-30MKI’s effective BVR reach and kill probability were lower than what its radar could theoretically support. However, newer missiles are closing this gap. India has started integrating its own Astra family of BVR air-to-air missiles onto the Su-30MKI (the Astra Mk1 ~110 km range, and Mk2 in development expected >150 km range). Along with the planned Uttam AESA radar upgrade for the Su-30, these steps should restore the Su-30MKI’s competitiveness in modern BVR combat.

So, India likely retains a slight BVR edge in quality – the Meteor is still the region’s premier air-to-air missile – but Pakistan’s PL-15 on both JF-17 Block III and J-10C narrows the gap considerably. Situational awareness (via AWACS and datalinks) and electronic warfare will be decisive in BVR engagements; here the Indian Air Force’s Phalcons and Rafale’s SPECTRA suite, versus the Pakistan Air Force’s Erieye network and Chinese electronic attack pods, would each seek to tip the scales.

WVR

What about WVR dogfights? As we’ve discussed in our ‘psychology of the fighter pilot’ video, a combination of pilot skill and aircraft agility are key. The Su-30MKI is a remarkably agile dogfighter – its thrust-vectoring nozzles and relaxed stability design let it perform extreme manoeuvres like the Pugachev’s Cobra and Kulbit. While such post-stall tricks are more for air shows and rarely applicable in combat, the thrust vectoring does confer a superb ability to point the nose and retain control at high angles of attack. The Su-30’s sheer size and twin-engine power also give it excellent sustained turn performance when not carrying heavy loads. The Rafale, though lacking thrust vectoring, uses its aerodynamics to great effect: the combination of delta wing and close-coupled canard generates high instantaneous turn rates, and its digital fly-by-wire is optimized to preserve energy in a dogfight. Rafale is also equipped with the HMDS and high-off-boresight missiles (MICA-IR or upcoming ASRAAM), as is the Su-30MKI (with R-73 or Astra IR).

On the Pakistani side, the newer JF-17 Block III has improved manoeuvrability and a Helmet-Mounted Sight with PL-10, but it simply does not have the raw thrust or wing loading to out-turn a Su-30 or Rafale in a sustained fight. The JF-17’s best tactic within visual range would be in an “ambush”—i.e. shoot at high off-boresight angles as soon as a merge occurs, rather than get into a prolonged turning battle. The J-10C, with its canard design and high thrust-to-weight, is a more agile opponent; in PLAAF service J-10s are known for excellent agility. With the PL-10 and Helmet-Mounted Sight, a J-10C could hold its own in a close-in fight, nearly on par with the Rafale in kinematics. However, the Rafale’s superior pilot interface and SPECTRA electronic warfare suite—which includes defensive jammers and decoys—might give it an edge in surviving to take the shot. In any case, modern dogfights would likely be decided by the first high-off-boresight missile fired, with engagements lethal and brief.

Strike & Standoff

In terms of strike and standoff capabilities the Indian Air Force holds a decisive advantage. The Indian Air Force has invested in long-range standoff weapons and the platforms to deliver them, giving it the ability to strike critical targets across Pakistan with precision. The Rafale’s Scalp-EG stealth cruise missile (with a 500 km range) and the Su-30MKI’s BrahMos-A allow India to hit high-value targets from well outside Pakistani air defences. These weapons fly at low level and are difficult to intercept – especially BrahMos, which, at nearly Mach 3, gives very little reaction time.

India’s continued operation of deep-strike Jaguars and upgraded Mirage 2000I armed with Popeye or Spice missiles also adds to its tactical strike options. By contrast, Pakistan’s air-launched standoff capability rests primarily on the Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile which at around 350 km range is useful but subsonic and generally launched from older Mirage III/Vs. There have been reports of a possible air-launched variant of the Babur cruise missile (which exists in ground and submarine-launched forms), but if such a program exists, it is likely still in testing and not widely deployed. In any case, Pakistan’s air-launched cruise missiles are subsonic and carry smaller warheads; they pose a threat, but not of the same order as the BrahMos.

The Pakistan Air Force’s strike doctrine has historically emphasized low-level ingress, terrain masking, and precision delivery of smaller payloads. For instance, in previous skirmishes, Pakistan Air Force Mirage Vs conducted low altitude attacks with limited munitions to avoid radar detection. This doctrine is effective for tactical strikes or symbolic responses (as seen in the 2019 Operation Swift Retort), but it does not provide the strategic reach or destructive payload that India’s long-range missiles and heavy fighters do. Simply put, the Indian Air Force can strike anywhere in Pakistan, including hardened targets, with a higher probability of success and without exposing its launch platforms to extreme risk. Pakistan can strike deep into India as well (all the way to Delhi or Mumbai) if it uses its ballistic missiles or perhaps a Babur ground-launch – but with aircraft-delivered weapons, its options are more limited and riskier.

Sustaining the Fight

If there were to be an extended conflict, we need to consider how each side can sustain their capabilities. India’s aerospace industry, while still developing, can produce a variety of missiles. This means India can, to a certain extent, replenish or replace certain armaments during a protracted conflict and is less vulnerable to foreign sanctions cutting off supply. Pakistan, on the other hand, relies on external suppliers for any advanced hardware. China is a reliable partner for Pakistan, but not everything (like F-16 spares or certain high-end components) comes from China. In a long conflict or arms embargo situation, Pakistan could face difficulties sustaining operations if parts or ammo stockpiles run low, whereas India could leverage domestic production and a larger economy to stay in the fight.

Air Refuelling

A final consideration when it comes to projecting air power is aerial refuelling capability. India—anchored by six IL-78MKI tankers and supported by leased platforms like the A330 MRTT and KC-135—boasts an extended strike range, persistence, and flexibility in conflict scenarios. In contrast, Pakistan is limited to a small number of Ilyushin IL-78 multipurpose aerial-refuelling tankers, restricting the scale and duration of its long-range operations. While both air forces operate probe-equipped fighters, India’s larger and more dependable tanker capacity allows for broader operational reach and sustained tempo, especially during out-of-area deployments or multi-axis strikes.

Conclusion

So all-in-all it would be safe to say that the Indian Air Force has a multi-role force geared for large-scale, sustained operations across multiple theatres. The Pakistan Air Force, on the other hand, is relying on quick responses, precision in select domains, and technological parity in key niches (like BVR missiles and AWACS) for its competitive edge. In the current conflict, India would seek to use its numerical and standoff advantages to overwhelm Pakistan’s defences—achieving air superiority and then leveraging air power for punitive strikes. Pakistan would obviously try to deny the Indian Air Force air superiority in the opening stages through sharp, well-coordinated air battles (using its new BVR arms and networking) and to showcase enough offensive capability of its own to deter India from escalation (for example, holding Indian targets at risk with its missiles).

Ultimately, in this conflict, the edge may belong to the side that better integrates its assets and controls the information sphere of the battle. It may not come down to brute force alone. On paper, the Indian Air Force retains a broader and more potent arsenal, but the Pakistan Air Force is agile and increasingly well-equipped for asymmetric defence. Now that the conflict has turned kinetic, the variables are incredibly complex, and the battlespace can shift in an instant. It’s a fascinating—and sobering—dynamic.

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